Irish Times poll paints picture of a nervy, anxious and pessimistic Ireland

They’re bracing themselves. A huge majority of people believe the worst of the pandemic has yet to come, and while they believe the Government is handling the crisis well, confidence has fallen sharply in recent months. The picture is a nervy, anxious and pessimistic one.

The second part of The Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll focuses on Covid, next week's budget and the issue of assisted dying/suicide.

It shows that as people face up to the unfolding second wave of the virus their confidence in the Government’s handling of the pandemic has fallen significantly since last June.

As was pointed out on Thursday in relation to the findings of the poll on the Government’s approval ratings, the comparison with the last poll in June is a harsh one for Micheál Martin’s administration.

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Then the Fine Gael-led government was emerging from a lockdown which had successfully suppressed the virus, and was enjoying stratospheric approval ratings – ironic, given the electorate had voted to chuck them out a few months beforehand. Nearly nine out of 10 voters believed it was doing a good job handling the pandemic.

Now the situation is very different.

The new Government has been somewhat error-prone to put it mildly. The second wave of the virus is under way. The opening up of the country has become the shutting down. The coalition has been in recent days at odds with its public health experts.

All of that considered, today’s results for the Government – showing that nearly six out of 10 voters (58 per cent) believe it is doing a good job on the virus – is a pretty respectable result.

In that it is in tune with Thursday’s findings of the poll which, as far as the Government is concerned, can be summarised as follows – could be worse.

Negative view

Nonetheless, the numbers are the numbers. And they show that a large number of people have formed a negative view of the Government’s handling of the crisis in recent months.

If the second wave threatens to overrun the health service in the coming months it’s hard to escape the conclusion that public confidence in the Government to manage the pandemic will collapse completely. That would be an existential crisis for the coalition.

The coming weeks are not just crucial for how the country deals with the pandemic; they are crucial for the credibility of the Government.

Also striking is the extent to which people are pessimistic about the future. Just 22 per cent of respondents believe that the worst of the pandemic is behind us; nearly seven out of 10 voters (69 per cent) believe that “the worst is yet to come”. For a Government that will try to instil economic confidence in its first budget in a few days’ time, there is an obvious difficulty.

Of a piece with this pessimism about the future is the view among nearly a third of voters (32 per cent) that the Government should introduce more restrictions “to safeguard the health of the population”.

While the greater number of voters (45 per cent) believe that the current restrictions are “about right”, just 21 per cent say that they are “damaging businesses and the economy unnecessarily”.

It seems that if the Government goes ahead with further restrictions in the coming weeks it is likely to have public support.

Today’s poll bears out the findings of other surveys in recent months which have found the public’s mood to be cautious and risk-averse. It suggests that with the Government reluctant to take the advice of public health experts to reintroduce many elements of the lockdown, it may have to justify this decision to the public.

Priorities

The pandemic also overshadows the public’s priorities for next week’s budget, with the health service selected as the number-one choice for additional investment.

Asked to pick one area for additional public spending next week, 42 per cent of respondents opted for the health service; 32 per cent for spending more on “building houses, schools, hospitals and other infrastructure”; just 6 per cent for social welfare; 12 per cent for “business supports/grants” and just 4 per cent on “green initiatives”.

Despite the Green Party’s political success earlier this year and its presence in the Government, the public continues to see other areas as priorities for investment. Even among Green Party supporters, health and public investment in infrastructure are significantly higher priorities.